The Indian Auto Industry is estimated to grow by over 7% this Calender Year. While we’ll present the actual sales data for 2015 in Jan’16; do find our predictions we estimate for this CY OEM-wise here. The overall industry size is touted to cross 27 lakh units this year (~27.3 lakhs including luxury segment). The highlights of our analysis is:
-The growth in passenger cars would be primarily fueled by the Top 3 OEM’s – namely Maruti, Hyundai and Honda.
-Hyundai will emerge as the OEM with the highest growth this CY. Hyundai’s entry into SUV space (through Creta) has proved to be the catalyst to this growth.
-Maruti will maintain its dominance by a huge margin and would end at a Market Share of over 48%. The introduction of Nexa models has proven to be positive and we foresee stronger performance ahead.
-The state of affairs at the Top 3 losers (GM, Fiat and Nissan) looks worrisome. These OEM’s will have to do something radical in CY16 to avoid further slump. We have already presented our recommendations for GM here.
-VW to have a tougher time in next CY – can the German auto major avoid the downfall? Only time will tell.
-Mahindra did gain some ground with TUV 300, however the overall sales haven’t been encoraging for this Indian MNC. With KUV100, the tables can turn very soon and put the OEM back to No.3!